Going for It on Fourth Down

I've mentioned before the book Scorecasting, which challenges conventional wisdom and assumptions about sports by applying economic analysis to sports situations. 

One of the stories mentioned in the book is about Kevin Kelley, the football coach at Pulaski Academy in Little Rock, Arkansas.  Kelley has also been featured in Sports Illustrated - here's one article about him.  Kelley's approach is unusual because he doesn't follow a lot of the typical football wisdom.  His team doesn't punt - always going for it on fourth down.  His team almost always attempts an onside kick after scoring, and his playbook has a lot of tricks and gimmicks.  Kelley has done a lot of research on football matters, and the numbers and analyses convince him that a lot of conventional football wisdom is just wrong.  For example, as the SI article mentioned, "according to Kelley's statistics, when a team punts from near its end zone, the opponent will take possession inside the 40-yard line and will then score a touchdown 77 percent of the time. If it recovers on downs inside the 10, it will score a touchdown 92 percent of the time.  'So [forsaking] a punt, you give your offense a chance to stay on the field," he said. "And if you miss, the odds of the other team scoring only increase 15 percent. It's like someone said, '[Punting] is what you do on fourth down,' and everyone did it without asking why.'"

It's hard to argue with the results - over the past ten years Pulaski Academy has the record of 105-20 over the past 10 seasons, including an undefeated season in 2011, and it has also won won three state championships. 

Kelley's name recently surfaced again as the inspiration behind Louisiana-Monroe's stunning 34-31 overtime defeat of Arkansas this past Saturday.  Louisiana-Monroe has not had a winning season since 1993, and has never been to a bowl game, while Arkansas is a perennial national powerhouse who was ranked #8 in the Associated Press bowl heading into the game.  Kelley had befriended Louisiana-Monroe's offensive coordinator and head coach, and shared his research and philosophy with them.  Although the Warhawks didn't fully buy into the system, when they were behind 28-7 in the second half, they started playing Kelley's way.  The result is that they went 6-for-7 on fourth downs and converted a fourth down on each of the five touchdown drives, including the last one that gave them the win.